RESUMEN
Emerging infectious diseases pose one of the greatest threats to human health and biodiversity. Phylodynamics is often used to infer epidemiological parameters essential for guiding intervention strategies for human viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2). Here, we applied phylodynamics to elucidate the epidemiological dynamics of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a fatal, transmissible cancer with a genome thousands of times larger than that of any virus. Despite prior predictions of devil extinction, transmission rates have declined precipitously from ~3.5 secondary infections per infected individual to ~1 at present. Thus, DFTD appears to be transitioning from emergence to endemism, lending hope for the continued survival of the endangered Tasmanian devil. More generally, our study demonstrates a new phylodynamic analytical framework that can be applied to virtually any pathogen.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/veterinaria , Enfermedades Endémicas/veterinaria , Neoplasias Faciales/epidemiología , Neoplasias Faciales/veterinaria , Marsupiales , Animales , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/genética , Extinción Biológica , Neoplasias Faciales/genética , Filogenia , Tasmania/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The 'social distancing' that occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in humans provides a powerful illustration of the intimate relationship between infectious disease and social behaviour in animals. Indeed, directly transmitted pathogens have long been considered a major cost of group living in humans and other social animals, as well as a driver of the evolution of group size and social behaviour. As the risk and frequency of emerging infectious diseases rise, the ability of social taxa to respond appropriately to changing infectious disease pressures could mean the difference between persistence and extinction. Here, we examine changes in the social behaviour of humans and wildlife in response to infectious diseases and compare these responses to theoretical expectations. We consider constraints on altering social behaviour in the face of emerging diseases, including the lack of behavioural plasticity, environmental limitations and conflicting pressures from the many benefits of group living. We also explore the ways that social animals can minimize the costs of disease-induced changes to sociality and the unique advantages that humans may have in maintaining the benefits of sociality despite social distancing.